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Sunday, November 23
Retirement Radar
The COLA Trend in 2026 No One’s Talking About (Yet)
Last night, over a cup of tea, I found myself scrolling through the latest CPI update… and something caught my eye. A slow-moving trend that could quietly shape the 2026 Social Security Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA).
And here’s the surprising part:
If the current data holds even halfway steady, retirees could be looking at a noticeably better bump than analysts predicted just a few months ago.
Not life-changing - but meaningful.
Just enough to loosen the monthly budget a little for many households.
Let me break down what’s shifting, what experts are saying, and how I’m adjusting my own planning because of it. 👇
🌟 Today’s Highlights
What the newest CPI numbers really signal
Early COLA predictions from credible sources
How an extra ~$50/month could strengthen your 2026 finances
📊 Stat of the Day
The latest CPI report shows a 3.2% year-over-year rise, driven mainly by shelter and medical costs.
(Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics – CPI Summary
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm)
Several analysts say that if this trend holds, the 2026 COLA could land around 2.7–2.9% - higher than early-year forecasts.
(Analysis: The Senior Citizens League – COLA Tracking
https://seniorsleague.org/)
💡 Retirement Radar Insight: “The Quiet COLA Lift”
1️⃣ Why CPI matters right now
COLA is tied directly to the CPI-W index. Right now, CPI-W is running a touch hotter than projected.
See the index:
https://www.ssa.gov/oact/cola/latestCOLA.html
This is why some experts now believe 2026 may bring a slightly bigger adjustment.
2️⃣ What a 2.8% COLA means in real dollars
For the average retiree receiving ~$1,900 per month, a 2.8% increase equals roughly:
➡️ About $50 more per month
➡️ About $600 more per year
Not huge - but enough to give breathing room.
3️⃣ Where that extra $50/month should go
Here’s the part many people overlook. A small boost, allocated wisely, can create real stability.
Experts suggest directing the extra amount toward:
Prescription costs (which continue rising):
GoodRx Medicare Drug Cost Trends
https://www.goodrx.com/healthcare-access/research/drug-prices-medicare-trendsSupplementing an emergency fund
Covering rising utility costs
Offsetting Part D or Medigap premium increases
Medicare Premium Forecasts
https://www.medicare.gov/basics/costs/medicare-costs
Just $50 consistently used well can protect your budget from being squeezed next year.
4️⃣ What I’m personally doing this week
I’m adjusting my 2026 budget assumptions early. If COLA lands near 2.8%, I want to know exactly how it fits into:
Expected medical bill increases
Seasonal expenses
Federal tax bracket shifts
IRS Inflation Adjustment Notice
https://www.irs.gov/newsroom
Small planning now makes spring 2026 a lot smoother.
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🔑 What You Can Do This Week
Review the latest CPI chart (linked above)
Update your 2026 budget with a conservative 2.7–2.8% COLA assumption
List where an extra $50/month would make the biggest difference
Keep an eye on upcoming SSA updates this fall
📬 Question for You
If you do receive a slightly higher COLA in 2026, where would that extra breathing room help you most?
Hit reply and let me know - I truly enjoy reading your stories.
PS: Want me to send you a quick 2026 budgeting template?
Just reply YES.
Warmly,
Sarah